By the numbers

Enrollment in Denver Public Schools projected to drop — and other takeaways from new regional analysis

PHOTO: Denver Post file

After growing for nearly two decades, the student population in Denver Public Schools is forecast to drop almost 2 percent by 2021, according to a new analysis released by the district.

The main reasons, the analysis concludes, are lower post-recession birth rates and rising housing prices, which are pushing lower-income families out of the city.

But the decrease won’t be felt in every neighborhood, it says. Some parts of the city, like the booming near northeast Stapleton neighborhood, are expected to see increases. Meanwhile, more than half of the city’s 78 neighborhoods are predicted to experience drops in enrollment. Southwest Denver, home to many Latino families, will be among the hardest hit.

For at least three regions of the city, district planning officials recommend considering a controversial solution: consolidating schools, especially at the elementary level.

The enrollment predictions are the work of the Denver Council of Regional Governments and the Shift Research Lab, which is affiliated with the local children-focused Piton Foundation. (The Piton Foundation is a funder of Chalkbeat.)

This year is the first that Denver Public Schools commissioned an independent, five-year enrollment forecast as part of its annual “strategic regional analysis,” which also examines school capacity and performance in an attempt to identify trends and issues.

Given the rapid pace at which the city is changing, the district wanted an expert opinion, explained Brian Eschbacher, the district’s executive director of planning and enrollment services. The district also hoped having an independent third-party conduct the forecast would give skeptical community members more confidence in the numbers, he said.

The analysis was released publicly at a school board work session Thursday.

Here are 12 takeaways from the 105-page document:

1. At the moment, district enrollment is still growing. But it’s growing at a slower pace than it has over the past 10 years, during which time DPS has worked to recapture families who left the city’s public schools. Enrollment is up just 0.4 percent this year to a total of 92,686 students.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

2. By 2021, enrollment is forecast to be down to 91,201 students.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

3. Elementary schools will be the hardest hit. By 2021, elementary enrollment is forecast to decline by 7 percent. Middle school enrollment is expected to stay steady because it won’t yet be affected by lower birth rates. High school enrollment is predicted to increase as the students who contributed to the district’s growth over the past decade get older.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

4. The neighborhoods that are expected to experience the largest enrollment declines are Montbello in far northeast Denver; Elyria-Swansea, Cole, Five Points and Whittier in central Denver; Sunnyside in northwest Denver; and West Colfax, Villa Park, Athmar Park, Westwood and Ruby Hill in southwest Denver. The district has flagged the areas for further study.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

5. The southwest part of the city is forecast to lose the most students by 2021: nearly 2,000. Most of the decline is expected to happen at the elementary level. Planning officials are recommending that “excess capacity and enrollment declines should be closely monitored going forward, particularly at the elementary level, and consolidation should be considered if school budgets are unable to sustain viable programs.” Officials made similar recommendations for two other regions, as well: the gentrifying central and northwest parts of the city.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

6. The near northeast region is the reverse. Due in part to continued development in the middle- and upper-income Stapleton neighborhood, it’s expected to gain the most students by 2021: more than 2,300. The biggest gains are forecast at the high school level.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

7. Denver Public Schools loses students each year to neighboring school districts, but it receives students from them, too. In 2016, more than 5,000 students who live in Denver attended school in a suburban district. However, about 4,500 students from suburban districts attended school in Denver, resulting in a net loss of about 500 students for DPS.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

8. The overall student population in Denver Public Schools continues to get more affluent and more white. This year, the percentage of students who qualify for free or reduced-price lunch, a proxy for poverty, is down 1 percent. The percentage of white students is up 1 percent. Both changes are in line with demographic trends occurring over the past five years.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

9. Low-income students, non-white students and English language learners are less likely to attend schools the district deems high quality than wealthier, white, non-English-learners. But the gaps between the percentages of less privileged and more privileged students attending quality schools has shrunk over the past five years.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

10. Denver has universal school choice, which means students can request a seat in any of the district’s traditional, innovation or charter schools. White students participate at a higher rate than non-white students. But English language learners and non-English learners participate at the same rate: 83 percent. This year, 4,400 students in the so-called transition grades of kindergarten, sixth and ninth grade who participated in school choice and whose assigned schools are lower performing are attending a school the district considers high quality.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

11. Districtwide, 70 percent of elementary school students are attending high quality schools, or schools rated blue or green on the district’s color-coded scale, which is an increase from last year. That percentage is lower for the upper grades: 53 percent of middle school and 48 percent of high school students attend blue and green schools. The high school percentage has stayed relatively steady over the past few years, but the middle school percentage has declined.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

12. The district has set a goal that 80 percent of students residing in each region of the city will attend a blue or green school by 2020. While it has yet to meet that goal in any region, it has made some progress, especially at the elementary school level.

Credit: Denver Public Schools

pick a school

Denver touts record participation in school choice process

PHOTO: Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite
Students at McAuliffe International School. The school was among the most-requested this year. (Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite)

Even as more Denver families participated in the annual public school lottery this year, about four out of five still got into a first-choice school, district officials announced Thursday.

More than 27,000 families submitted school choices, up 17 percent from last year. Officials attributed the big jump to several factors, including additional help the district provided to families to fill out the choice forms, which were online-only this year.

The window of time families had to submit choices was also pushed back from January to February, which gave families more time to tour schools and rank their top five choices.

Match rates – or the percentage of incoming elementary, middle, and high school students who got into their first-choice schools – dipped slightly from 82 percent last year to 81 percent this year. Brian Eschbacher, the district’s executive director of enrollment and planning services, said that’s not bad given that nearly 4,000 more families participated this year.

Deputy Superintendent Susana Cordova said officials are “thrilled” with the record participation. The district received its first choice form at 12:02 a.m. on February 1, just two minutes after the window opened, she said. The window closed February 28, and families found out last week which schools their children got into.

The reasons families participate in the lottery vary. Some want to send their children to charter schools or to district-run schools outside their neighborhood because they believe those schools are better. Others may be looking for a certain type of program, such as dual-language instruction.

Still others participate because they live in “enrollment zones,” which are essentially big school boundaries with several schools in them. Students who live in enrollment zones are guaranteed a spot at one of the schools in the zone but not necessarily the one closest to where they live. Many families who live in zones use the choice process to increase the chances they’ll get into their preferred school.

The district added three more enrollment zones this year, bringing the total number to 14 citywide.

This is the seventh year the 92,600-student district has used a single form that asks families to list their top five school choices. Those choices can be district-run or charter schools.

In part for making it relatively easy for parents to navigate the lottery, Denver has been named the best large school district in the country for choice by the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution think tank for two years in a row.

The district especially encourages families with children entering the so-called “transition grades” of preschool, kindergarten, sixth grade, and ninth grade to submit choice forms.

This year, the biggest increase in participation came at the preschool level, with 777 more families requesting to enroll in preschool programs, a 17 percent increase from last year. The second-biggest increase was at the high school level, with 359 more families participating.

The most-requested high school was the city’s biggest, East High School in east-central Denver. East is one of several more affluent Denver schools participating in a pilot program that gives preference to students from low-income families who want to choice into the school.

Last year, the pilot program resulted in every eighth-grader from a low-income family who applied for a spot in East’s freshman class getting in. Results from this year are not yet available for East and the other schools participating in the program, Eschbacher said.

The most-requested middle school was McAuliffe International School in northeast Denver. The most-requested elementary school was Swigert International School, which is also located in the northeast and follows the same International Baccalaureate curriculum as McAuliffe.

contract details

Antwan Wilson being paid up to $60,000 to consult for Denver Public Schools

Antwan Wilson visits a fifth grade math class at the Brightwood Education Campus in Washington on his first day as D.C. schools chancellor. (Photo by Sarah L. Voisin/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

The Denver school district is paying former administrator Antwan Wilson as much as $60,000 to be a part-time consultant for 12 weeks to help to build a strategic plan for a career and technical education program, according to Wilson’s contract.

The contract shows the district determined that Wilson, who was recently forced to resign as Washington, D.C. schools chancellor, was the only person qualified for the consultant job.

“We considered other local or national consulting organizations that could provide these services, but determined they would not be able to meet our needs,” Denver Public Schools Chief Operating Officer David Suppes wrote as justification for why the contract was not put out for competitive bid. Chalkbeat obtained the contract in an open records request.

Suppes cited Wilson’s years of experience managing large urban school districts, as well as his experience leading secondary schools in Denver. Wilson was principal of the now-closed Montbello High School and worked for five years as an assistant superintendent in Denver before becoming superintendent in Oakland, California, and then chancellor in D.C.

He resigned as chancellor in February after it came to light that he skirted the district’s competitive school lottery process to get his oldest daughter into a high-performing school.

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Denver Superintendent Tom Boasberg said in a previous Chalkbeat interview that Wilson was a good fit for the consultant job because “he is probably the country’s foremost thinker on these issues around career and technical education and concurrent enrollment,” which allows high school students to take college classes and receive credit for free.

Wilson’s resume says he ran Denver Public Schools’ concurrent enrollment program during his tenure as the assistant superintendent for post-secondary readiness from 2009 to 2014. It also notes he led the district’s career and technical education program.

The number of students taking concurrent enrollment classes increased during his tenure, his resume says. Graduation rates increased and dropout rates decreased, partly due to efforts to open new alternative schools, which the district calls “multiple pathways schools,” it says.

Boasberg said Wilson will be helping to expand the district’s career and technical program, called CareerConnect, to those schools.

Wilson’s consultant contract says he will “support the strategic planning process, including stakeholder engagement, evaluation of successful practices used elsewhere, and assisting the team in thinking through systemic needs for the thoughtful growth of the program.”

The contract notes that Wilson’s position is grant funded. It says his fee includes a $69 per-diem expense and $178 in daily lodging expenses. His fee is based on a $150-per-hour rate, it says. In the end, how much he is paid will depend on how many hours he works, a district spokesman said.

The contract specifies that Wilson will work two days a week for eight hours a day.

In his justification for why the contract was not competitive, Suppes wrote that local consulting companies that have worked with Denver Public Schools in the past “would not have experience in this area” and would have been more expensive at $175 to $200 an hour.

National consulting companies, Suppes wrote, “are often strong in doing this type of work, but might not have the skill depth available.” Plus, he wrote, the national consultants would have charged two to four times as much as the district is paying Wilson.

Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that the contract says $60,000 is the maximum amount Antwan Wilson will be paid. In the end, how much he is paid will depend on how many hours he works.