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A bachelor’s degree is the best pathway to a good job in Illinois — and while alternative pathways can lead to good jobs, they are more inequitable, according to a new report from the Illinois Workforce and Education Research Collaborative and the UChicago Consortium on School Research.
Some non-college pathways also led to good jobs, such as construction and agriculture, but they heavily favored white and Latino men.
“I know there’s a lot of questions about: Is the college degree worth it?” said Meg Bates, director of I-WERC. “Here we’re seeing that, really, it’s the only degree that consistently leads to that upward mobility.”
What’s more, Bates said, is people from low-income families are much more likely to have some college education, but no degree.
“They’re in what we call, like, the worst of both worlds,” she said. “They’ve gone, they’ve taken on debt, they’ve spent money, but they’re not getting the payoff of the degree.”
The researchers analyzed data from the Illinois High School 2 Career dataset, which includes information kept by the Illinois Department of Employment Security, the Illinois Student Assistance Commission, and the Illinois State Board of Education. The report looked at outcomes for a cohort of students from the classes of 2008 through 2012 who are now in the workforce.
But college enrollment rates have dipped in the years since that time. Last year, about 65% of Illinois high school graduates enrolled in college within a year, Illinois state report card data shows. That’s down from a high of around 75% in 2018.
The report, which is a follow-up to one released over the summer, found that 54% of students from low-income families ended up in a good job compared to 69% of students from higher-earning families. The report defined the income threshold for a so-called good job as $25,879 annually in 2017 dollars, worth approximately $34,375 in 2025, which the report authors acknowledged is low and does not meet the national living wage even though it exceeds Illinois’ minimum wage.
The authors identified five industries in Illinois where certificates or associate level degrees still led to good jobs: construction trades, agriculture and veterinary science, engineering, health professions, and mechanic and repair jobs. All of these pathways paid off primarily for men, and in particular, white men.
Health professions were the exception. They were also a promising pathway for women, in particular Latinas.
Disparities shrank as higher education rose, further solidifying the authors’ conclusion that college is the best pathway to economic mobility. This mirrors the findings of national research out of Stanford and Georgetown Universities.
“The data make it clear that higher education remains one of the most effective ways for students to move into higher income brackets,” State Superintendent of Education Tony Sanders said in a press release. “What’s powerful about this report is that it shows students which pathways — degrees, industries and credentials — truly pay off. That knowledge helps students make confident, informed choices about their futures.”
Bates said it’s important to share this research with school staff, especially counselors, who can help students make decisions about their futures beyond high school.
In Chicago, students are required to have a postsecondary plan in order to graduate and last year, about 63% of CPS graduates enrolled in college within a year, according to state data. A little over half finish within six years, according to ongoing longitudinal research from the To&Through Project at the University of Chicago.
Becky Vevea is the bureau chief for Chalkbeat Chicago. Contact Becky at bvevea@chalkbeat.org.
