Sign up for Chalkbeat Tennessee’s free newsletter to keep up with statewide education policy and Memphis-Shelby County Schools.
Student enrollment in Memphis-Shelby County Schools has declined by over 9% in the past decade, far outpacing statewide and national trends.
MSCS lost more than 10,000 students in its traditional and charter schools between 2014 and 2024, according to a Chalkbeat analysis of data from the Tennessee Department of Education. Preliminary data provided by the district in August indicated further loss of nearly 2,000 students in the past two school years, but finalized numbers are not yet available from the state.
Throughout Tennessee, public school enrollment dropped by just under 2.5% in the 2014 to 2024 time frame, which mirrors national rates.
These declines exacerbate longstanding budget issues in the district and underscore in part why leaders are now considering school closures. The decline also indicates the district’s post-pandemic efforts to boost enrollment have not panned out at a time when Tennessee leaders are prioritizing access to private schools through a new state voucher program.
“We have to become competitive,” MSCS board member Natalie McKinney said, noting that enrollment numbers affect the amount of money given to the district through the state’s per-pupil funding model.
“We have to make sure that we have everything, the options and choices and opportunities that people want for their children,” she added. “But we also have to come to the realization that we’re underresourced and underfunded anyway.”
It’s not clear exactly where local students have gone in recent years, with total enrollment dropping from around 116,000 to 105,000 in the decade span. Some nearby suburban districts have grown since a controversial 2014 “de-merger” where six smaller independent school systems broke off from the county district.
Four of the six districts gained a total of around 3,000 students in the past decade, which does not fully account for MSCS’ decline. And two of those districts, Millington and Arlington, lost students at a similar rate to MSCS.
National and local experts say public school declines can be attributed to a variety of factors, including lower birth rates and general population changes. In 2024, Shelby County lost more residents than any city in the U.S.
Increased interest in other education options, such as homeschooling and private schools, is also contributing to a nationwide public exodus. Shelby County private school enrollment data is not available. But in Tennessee overall, private school enrollment jumped by over 23% from 2019 to 2021, compared to 4.3% for the country as a whole.
“We have the most charters in the state; we have in a county, the most school systems in the state; we have a lot of homeschoolers,” McKinney said. “Some people just don’t like the school system. They don’t feel like it will do what they need to do for their youth.”
The district differs from national trends in its charter enrollment numbers. MSCS charter enrollment increased before 2020 but then quickly fell off. Post-pandemic, charters have lost students at an even faster rate than local traditional schools, at over 13%.
Terence Patterson, president of the Memphis Education Fund, said all of the “macro factors” affecting traditional public schools, including surges in private enrollment, likely contribute to recent MSCS charter declines, too. He also said the number of charter schools in MSCS has “plateaued” since 2017, with some opening and others being consolidated or closed down.
MSCS did not respond to multiple requests for comment. But district leaders, including McKinney, have said that student enrollment will be a factor considered in upcoming school closures, with recommendations expected from the new facilities committee this fall.
Patterson said around 30 schools in the district are overenrolled and outperforming schools that are under capacity.
“And so the question is, how can the district think about expanding seats in those higher performing schools, whether that means building additions or thinking about maintenance?” he said.
Meanwhile, more students are expected to flock to private schools in the coming years, said Tara Moon, a policy analyst at Georgetown thinktank Future Ed. The Trump administration’s new universal voucher program will drive further enrollment, Moon said, and Tennessee lawmakers implemented their own version of that policy this fall.
“It’s demonstrating a shift in family choices, and families are starting to consider other options outside of their traditional public school,” she said.
Moon also said that immigration “won’t play as large of a role in sustaining enrollment” as it has in the past, given more restrictive U.S. policies. That could hit higher poverty schools the hardest, she added.
“High poverty schools tend to have more homeless students or immigrant students, and those students tend to be more transient,” she said.
Bri Hatch covers Memphis-Shelby County Schools for Chalkbeat Tennessee. Reach Bri at bhatch@chalkbeat.org.
