This story was published in collaboration with Headway, a new initiative at The New York Times. Chalkbeat and Headway have been posing questions about the presidential election to educators and high school students since February. We have heard from nearly 1,000 students and 200 teachers across the nation.
Over the last year, the Headway Election Challenge has talked with teenagers across the country about the 2024 presidential election, in partnership with Chalkbeat. We’ve often asked a version of this question: What don’t you know about the election but want to?
We’ve logged more than 500 responses. And while we published the 10 most common questions earlier in October, there was one question we couldn’t include that topped the list: Who’s going to win?
We couldn’t answer it then. We can’t answer it now. And it may not be clear on election night either. So we thought we’d ask participants to speculate: what they hope and fear will happen in the election, and how they think young voter turnout will play out. That was the focus of last week’s challenge, and the responses paint a picture of teenagers navigating a highly charged political moment. Here’s what some of them had to say.
‘What do you expect will happen in this year’s presidential election?
Teenagers are expecting what many are: disputed results and challenges to the outcome. Some expressed fears of a repeat of the political violence that occurred on Jan. 6, 2021, and hope that if there are disputes, they remain legal and civil.
“I expect this year’s presidential election to be highly contentious, with close results in several key swing states. I’m concerned about potential challenges to the electoral process and how the candidates will handle those disputes.”
— Iman Rashid, 17
Senior at Thomas A. Edison Career and Technical Education High School in Queens
“There will likely be many incidents of protests, unrest, and controversies at various voting centers, and a rise in overall radicalism no matter the outcome.”
— Sophia Sun, 16
Junior at Skyline High School in Sammamish, Washington
“I expect votes to be challenged somewhat either way, but hopefully just through the legal system.”
— Will Palmer, 18
Freshman at American University in Washington, D.C.
Swing states were a big theme, too. Our respondents anticipate that just tens of thousands of votes in key states could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the election. But some expect traditionally red states, like North Carolina, to potentially swing blue, while others foresee more conservative shifts in Arizona and Nevada because of issues like immigration. Just about a quarter of our respondents expect Donald Trump to prevail in the election, while around 70 percent anticipate a Harris victory.
‘What do you hope will happen in this year’s presidential election?’
We heard hopes for both a Democratic victory and a Republican victory, although as the Harvard Youth Poll found in a survey of likely voters under 30, most respondents to our questionnaire prefer Kamala Harris. The prospect of electing the first female president is especially enticing to several respondents in our unscientific sample. But across the board, many of the teenagers expressed hope for a peaceful transfer of power, regardless of who wins.
“I hope that whatever happens, the U.S. will be able to recover as a united people after the election. Political divisiveness is tiring and unnecessary.”
— Lucas Robbins, 17
Senior at Mandela International Magnet School in Santa Fe, New Mexico
“I think this election will increase young people engaging in future elections, because the energy that younger people have brought to campaigns, canvassing, phone banking, sign waving, rally attendance, social media campaigning, and more has really shown the passion that young people are starting to develop for politics.”
— Isabelle Enriques, 16
Junior at Mililani High School in Mililani, Hawaii
‘What do you fear will happen in this year’s presidential election?’
Anxiety about unrest is strong. Teenagers vividly remember the violence of recent years, like the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and the 2020 protests over the murder of George Floyd, and they fear these types of events could repeat.
“I fear we see a level of unrest similar or even greater than what happened in 2020 with George Floyd’s murder. This election is shaping up to be the most polarizing election in my lifetime, and I’m scared people will be hurt over it. The assassination attempt was scary for me, and I’m fearful that it’s the new normal.”
— Raluchi Nzelibe, 16
Junior at Latin School of Chicago in Chicago
Respondents also worry about the deeper erosion of democratic norms. Several teenagers told us they feel that if the election results are contested, or if misinformation spreads unchecked, faith in democratic stability could weaken even further.
“Very afraid of political violence more than anything else. A lot of my friends are probably more afraid than I am but if the system starts to get challenged EVERY election, what was a problem one year could become the end of democracy.”
— Will Palmer
Voter turnout now and in the future
The 2020 election had the third-highest voter turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds since the voting age was lowered to 18, and nearly three-quarters of our respondents expect the turnout among young people to increase this year. One reason, they said, is social media.
“With how big of a factor social media is in our lives (and the likelihood of it stopping being slim), I think each election, the youth will be more involved. They have easier access to more information, so they can see the effects of certain policy and the actions of each candidate.”
— Keener Linder, 17
Senior at Cardinal Gibbons High School in Raleigh, North Carolina
“I believe that this age demographic cares a lot about activism and the way our society progresses. We have seen the negative impacts thus far when it comes to political leaders, and most if not all of the people around me want to make a change in some way.”
— Nikki Hatzopoulos, 18
Freshman at Fordham University in New York
But it’s not just memes. It’s also the stakes. Many teenagers told us that they feel that this election will greatly affect their future, and their family’s future.
“I believe with the current stakes, minorities being targeted and reproductive freedoms being targeted, that a lot of young voters will stand up and make their voices heard on these issues.”
— Zack Fein, 18
Freshman at Drew University in Madison, New Jersey
What’s next?
With this final set of questions, we’re wrapping up the weekly question posts of the Headway and Chalkbeat Election Challenge. If you missed a week or want to know more, now is the time to go back and finish up. Here are the questions we asked:
- What Do You Expect From the 2024 Election?
- Do You Feel Represented in This Election?
- What Makes You Want to Make Your Voice Heard?
- What Moments in the 2024 Election Do You Want to Remember?
- How Are You Informing Yourself and Others About the Election?
- How Much Does the 2024 Election Matter to You?
But don’t tune out yet; there’s more to come. After the Election Challenge, we plan to circle back with our respondents to see how their expectations, hopes and fears played out.
