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Just 1 in 10 kindergartners who start school at the bottom of their class in reading and math skills is proficient by third grade.
This finding comes from a new analysis of MAP reading and math scores from the testing organization NWEA. It aligns with a large body of research that finds that many educational gaps are already present in kindergarten and remain stubbornly persistent throughout children’s educational careers.
The finding is “depressing,” acknowledges Megan Kuhfeld, NWEA director of growth modeling and data analytics, but it should not be taken as reason to give up or assume schools can’t change students’ trajectories.
“The key story for me in these findings is that early intervention matters, and if we just wait until third grade to get a signal of where kids are, we’re missing probably the most important window when we can do something about it,” Kuhfeld said.
The analysis released Thursday relies on MAP reading and math test scores from more than 400,000 students who started kindergarten in the 2021-22 school year. Unlike the National Assessment of Educational Progress, students who take MAP tests are not a carefully selected representative sample. But they come from similar demographic backgrounds as American students as a whole, and the sample is larger than NAEP.
Students in participating districts take MAP tests in the fall and spring of each year, providing insights into their growth over the course of the school year and over time. NWEA found that many students made progress relative to their starting point. Conversely, not all students who started out at the top of their class stayed there.
But among students in the bottom fifth of their kindergarten class at the start of the school year, just 10% were proficient in math by third grade and just 13.9% were proficient in reading. For students who were still in the bottom 20% at the end of first grade, just 2% — 1 in 50 — were proficient by third grade.
Students who read poorly at the end of third grade often struggle for the rest of their schooling because they’re expected to use reading to learn every other subject. Elementary math skills, meanwhile, form the building blocks for more advanced work in middle and high school.
Most states start standardized testing in third grade, limiting insight into how students are doing in the early grades. Many states have kindergarten readiness screeners, though, and more states have adopted early literacy screeners as part of science of reading policies.
Kuhfeld said that reflects growing awareness of how important those early years are. But an attitude of “they don’t know it now but they’ll learn it soon, so you don’t need to worry about this too much” remains widespread, she said. The data suggests that “if you’re off track in kindergarten, that means you’re likely going to be off track in later grades,” and schools should act with urgency.
What, exactly, those interventions should be is a complicated question without clear answers. Many states have invested in preschool and high-quality childcare, yet some studies show the effects of preschool can fade over time. Some states like Louisiana and Mississippi have shown progress in early reading and math. Other states that have adopted science of reading policies have not seen similar progress, at least not yet.
NWEA is planning additional analysis of the effect of science of reading policies in states where its tests are widely used. Kuhfeld said teachers should not be expected to solve these longstanding problems on their own, but she believes training and high-quality instruction can move the needle.
Douglas Ready, a Teachers College, Columbia University professor who has studied inequality and the effects of schooling, said researchers have long known about large inequalities at the start of kindergarten and so have teachers, even if just anecdotally. The “glass half empty” view is that schools aren’t doing much to solve inequality, he said.
But there’s also a “glass half full” view, that disadvantages pile up for children in poverty before they even arrive at school, and schools can stop these inequalities from getting worse.
Averages also obscure important stories of success and failure, he said.
“Hidden within these data are schools that are doing amazing things, schools that are closing these gaps,” he said. “And there are schools that are making the gaps worse.”
The growing use of early assessments, including those on which NWEA based its analysis, can serve as a “clarion call” for the public and policymakers to understand just how large a job schools are inheriting from society, Ready said.
Erica Meltzer is Chalkbeat’s national editor based in Colorado. Contact Erica at emeltzer@chalkbeat.org.
